by Tom Colven, Senior Strategic Insights Analyst, Alliance Data
With Halloween behind us and the holidays quickly approaching, retailers have reason to believe their sales through the end of this year should have a merry growth compared to 2014. Several organizations including the National Retail Federation and Deloitte have released surveys for the holiday promotional period indicating consumers will spend more on holiday gifts with October’s retail sales growth being a good initial indicator. Below are several insights into the correlation between Halloween and Holiday shopping, two promotional periods for retailers, as well as 4 trends we will likely see among holiday shoppers:
1. Growth of Halloween Sales Hauntingly Similar to Holiday Projections
The U.S. Census Bureau reported soft year-over-year growth for the month of October last week, with total retail sales rising 2% over the latest reported 12 months. However, when looking specifically at the stores where consumers were buying costumes, candy, and decorations, these specific retailers had higher increases. Clothing and clothing accessories grew 3% for the year’s spookiest month, very comparable to the NRF’s 4% overall holiday sales forecast and Deloitte’s 3.5% to 4% projection over a similar period. Other popular categories for decorations like general merchandise stores rose by 2%, while department stores slightly brought down total growth by coming in flat.
2. Online Sales Lead the Pack like Rudolph
In October, people who shopped online spent over $41 Billion, a 7% gain over what they spent on the Internet twelve months ago. In fact, on Halloween weekend alone according to the Applied Predictive Technologies Index, online apparel sales grew 26% over the last weekend in 
October. Similarly, online spending was also growing in shopper preference during the Back-To-School season for apparel and online research. This trend will carry through the holiday season, with the NRF expecting a 6-8% increase, reaching a grand total of $105 Billion. The convenience of shopping at home on your desktop, tablet, or phone is appealing to more consumers who don’t want to face large crowds or colder winter conditions.
Additionally, stores are offering incentives to get customers shopping on their websites. Target is a great example of a retailer leading their shoppers to their e-commerce channel. Not only do they provide free returns and free shipping for online orders, but they also introduced a platform for children to create Holiday Wish Lists on their site or on mobile devices, where parents can also manage the lists accordingly and then proceed to a virtual checkout.
Even for people who still prefer the in-store experience, many could be checking brick-and-mortar stores earlier, and if they cannot find what they are looking for, they will then turn to online inventories as a last option. One thing is certain: whether they are online shopping before, after, or instead of going to stores, consumer spending on the Internet is expanding its share in Santa’s gift bag.
3. No Reindeer Games for In-Store Shopping: Fewer people Waiting ‘Til the Night Before 
While online purchases grew over Halloween weekend per the APT Index, the group also reported overall sales for that period were down 7% on an annual basis, indicating consumers got their costume and decoration shopping done earlier. Similarly for the holidays, people will start to make significant dents in their holiday lists earlier. According to the NRF’s Holiday Spending Surve
y, 57% of those celebrating the holidays had already started shopping by early November, up from 54% last year, and 16% from the 49% who had started by this time in 2008, the first time the organization asked this question. This year’s positive response to the question also marks the highest percentage seen in that timeframe. Similarly, a survey from Alliance Data’s card services business had more than half of consumers stating they will have the majority of their shopping done before December.
4. No Scrooge Employers Here: More Retailers Scaling Back Holiday Hours
Stores are paying close attention to the trend of consumers shopping earlier and earlier for Back to School, Halloween, and the Holiday season. Because of this trend, and to shift spending behavior over more of the entire promotional period, many retailers have decided to close on Thanksgiving this year, even one choosing to not be open on Black Friday. Staples, Costco, and Gamestop are a few brands that have already made announcements that they will keep their doors shut on Turkey Day, while sporting goods retailer REI is encouraging their employees and shoppers to enjoy their products outside by closing on Black Friday.
Overall, holiday sales should be similar to Halloween retail sales, particularly when looking at purchasing behavior. Consumers will be making their list, checking it twice, and then racing to get it done in time to enjoy some eggnog and cookies.
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Tom Colven is a Senior Strategic Insights Analyst at Alliance Data. In his role, he ensures leadership and associates are provided with timely industry, competitor, and market-related intelligence and analysis that supports and aligns with the company’s business decisions and growth.
Holiday season is a time for families and friends to gather, but it can often be expensive (and overwhelming) for consumers who entertain guests and purchase gifts for many people. Historically, Black Friday has been a day when consumers could tackle all their holiday shopping needs and get a good price, but with brands now offering similar deals throughout the year, consumers are planning ahead and getting most of their holiday shopping out of the way early. According to a pre-holiday study conducted by Alliance Data’s card services business, more than half of consumers will have the majority of their shopping finished before December, and even 8% will have all their shopping done by then, making for more family time during the traditional holiday season.
shopping. For the last few years, many stores opened their doors on Thanksgiving day for early-bird shoppers, but not everyone has been excited to leave their holiday dinner early to wait in long lines. Even more importantly, public backlash for stores choosing to open on Thanksgiving day has been significant. This year, some stores are keeping their doors closed on Thanksgiving, banking on a boost in online sales (which makes sense, as 80% of Thanksgiving purchases will be made online this year, 
While many of us typically have that one gift we hope to get (like the Official Daisy Red Ryder Range Model 1938 Air Rifle BB Gun that Ralphie wanted in A Christmas Story, one of my personal favorites), when it comes to giving gifts to friends and family, consumers say it’s up to the giver to pick out the presents – 63% won’t make a wish list (41% say it’s because they want to be surprised). Even after consumers wrap up their holiday gift purchasing, they’ll find other ways to give. The holiday season inspires more generosity than usual, and 39% make more charitable donations around the holidays.
rter of their holiday budget on themselves! This might not come as a surprise, since Millennials are sometimes stereotyped as being self-interested, but Millennials are moving into their first homes, getting married and starting families. Going through these major life changes means they need things they’ve never needed before.
Melody Gintert is the Director of Market & Consumer Insights at Alliance Data’s card services business. Melody and her team use various research methodologies to explore and capture the thoughts, perceptions and behaviors of consumers to deliver on Alliance Data’s Know more. Sell more.® promise.
Superheroes, zombies, princesses and Hunger Game heroines are some of the costumes we can expect to see on kids ringing our doorbells in a couple of weeks. Halloween is when jack-o-lanterns fill neighborhoods that are decorated with everything from lights to inflatables, and adults hoard mini candy bars like if they were preparing for a zombie apocalypse. For retailers, Halloween is that shopping season that falls in between back-to-school and holidays, and the one that is most impacted by economic downturns and a great measure of consumer confidence.
The most interesting facet of Halloween retail sales might be their correlation each year with holiday sales. In the past, back-to-school sales were considered to be one of the best predictors of how holiday sales would fare, but at Alliance Data, we recognized years ago that there is a more direct correlation with Halloween sales. We’ll make our predictions on whether this year’s holiday sales will be naughty or nice in a blog post next month. Stay tuned!
Tom Colven is a Senior Strategic Insights Analyst at Alliance Data. In his role, he ensures leadership and associates are provided with timely industry, competitor, and market-related intelligence and analysis that supports and aligns with the company’s business decisions and growth.
On the Contrary 